評聯合國開發計劃署的“黃禍論”

6月底，筆者收到壹份由聯合國開發計劃署傳來、標題極為醒目的新聞稿，即《中國的貿易勢道對亞洲貧窮鄰國構成挑戰》（見附件）。

該新聞稿的主要內容如下：

中國的崛起以及在外貿領域的長足發展使得周邊最不發達國家的經濟遭到嚴重破壞；

這些國家由中國進口的商品急遽增加，而他們對中國的出口卻停滯不前；

當中國對歐美的紡織品於2004年大幅增加時，這些貧窮國家卻無顯著改善；

中國的石油大量進口導致國際油價的暴漲；

通商本身無法確保經濟成長或使得最不發達國家脫貧；

亞洲經濟能力的提升固然起著牽引作用，但也擴大了亞太地區的不平等；

在全球市場所取得的成就與新機會，意味著對最不發達國家的責任也隨之提高。

令人感到文不對題和頗為意外的是，該文也提到目前這些貧窮國家之農業雕零、之成為農產品進口國，主要障礙來自於發達國家的農業補助政策和關稅政策。

這份新聞稿看後，即刻讓筆者憶及，每次印尼排華總是以“華人壟斷經濟”為借口。實際上，該國上自飛機，下至汽車，幾無壹件為海外華人或中國制造。如今，即便中國在外貿上小有成就，但就全球範圍看來，充斥國際市場的中國商品基本上仍舊是廉價輕工小商品，而且多是在歐美排除貿易壁壘情況下，才能夠像紡織品那樣 “突然”大量出口。至於利潤最大、對經濟發展最為關鍵的重工業、高科技產品，放眼望去依然多為發達國家所制造。

發達國家為了使其優勢成為永恒，除了設置重重貿易壁壘之外，還處心積慮地把仿造與偽造混為壹談，透過“保護專利”和“保護知識產權”剝奪任何壹個個人、任何壹個社會成長所必須運用的模仿本能（最基本的人權）。如今，當中國剛剛起步、擺脫貧困時，竟然還推動聯合國開發計劃署的宣傳機器，把中國的經濟成長形容為“黃禍之源”。

實際上，對發展中國家造成最大傷害的西方農業補助政策，與中國毫無關系可言；國際石油價格的攀升也主要是因為中東、西亞的緊張局勢，造成原料價格的普遍提升。至於中國的廉價輕工小商品,嚴格說來完全沒有算計社會成本與生態成本，而其主要利潤卻為外資企業所囊括。換言之，果真中國的成長對周邊弱小國家造成壓力，發達國家不止是必須承擔主要責任，同時對於給中國留下的兩極化與生態問題也得擔負部分責任。

簡而言之，當前所謂的南北問題、第三世界問題多由19世紀的工業革命和殖民侵略所導致，而隨之所建立的國際秩序與貿易條件更是把貧富兩個世界之間的差距給固定化和永恒化。尤其惡劣的是，壹旦任何壹個落後國家試圖發奮圖強，則總是會有那麼壹些貌似“權威”的機構，出面告示窮人不得翻身，否則窮者更窮。2006/7/3

www.undprcc.lk/aphdr2006          

China’s Trade Dynamism Poses Challenge to Poorer

Asian Neighbours, New UNDP Report Finds

GENEVA, 29 June 2006—The poorest countries of Asia are being out-competed by exports from China and selling little back to China in return, making it harder to benefit from their opening to international trade, says a report published today by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

UNDP’s new Asia-Pacific Human Development Report 2006, Trade on Human Terms, was launched in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, which like most of Asia’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) has been suffering from a severe trade imbalance with China. Cambodia exported US$30 million only to China in 2004, but imported US$452 million; similarly, Bangladesh exported US$57 million to China, while importing a record US$1.9 billion.

More than 20 percent of imports by these poor countries are from China. This has led to a displacement of domestic industries like leather and footwear, wood products, plastic products, paper and paper products, glass products and cycles and motorcycles.

“China’s stunning economic growth, in so many ways an inspiration to its Asia-Pacific neighbours, is not delivering reciprocal benefits to its Asia-Pacific trading partners – and is in some cases creating difficulties for them,” says the Foreword to the Report. “One of the messages of this report is that success in the global marketplace brings with it new opportunities and responsibilities, especially toward the least developed nations.”

Trade balance of selected LDCs in Asia with China, 2004

Source: IMF, 2006 (figures in US$ millions)

Following the demise of textile quotas, China also has rapidly expanded its share of textile and clothing exports in the US and EU markets. Chinese textile and clothing exports to these markets increased by more than $15 billion in 2005, while those of Asian LDCs have shown hardly any growth. Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Lao PDR and Cambodia, which had benefited from quotas, are increasingly vulnerable to competition from China in export markets.

China’s trade with its Asian neighbours now comprises the bulk of its global trade – but more than 75 per cent of its exchange with the region is with high-income nations such as Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore. In part, the Report said, this is because the poorest countries of Asia-Pacific have a very narrow range of exports and cannot meet Beijing’s high-tech and other import needs.

The Report makes a case for special and differential treatment of LDCs’ exports to large markets in Asia, such as China. In addition, it emphasizes the need for cooperation among Asia’s developing countries to maximize benefits to the poorest nations. A case also is made for pooling of the massive foreign exchange reserves that countries such as China hold, in order to finance the higher oil import bill that is causing an oil price “shock” to the region’s poorer countries.

“Trade integration alone is not sufficient to ensure economic growth or poverty alleviation for the Least Developed Countries,” cautioned Hafiz A. Pasha, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the United Nations Development Programme Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific.

While trade has been the engine of Asia’s economic dynamism, it also has contributed to increased inequalities in the Asia-Pacific region, not only between countries but also within national borders, the Report shows. The Report was developed by a team of experts from the region under the auspices of the UNDP Regional Centre in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Because a number of poor Asia-Pacific countries have had problems implementing their agreements with the World Trade Organization (WTO), many are negotiating regional and bilateral trade agreements, the Report also noted.

“The launch of the Report comes at a critical time, with only a few months left before the end-of-year deadline for the completion of the Doha Development Round,” noted UNDP Administrator Kemal Dervis. “We are at the midpoint of the 10-year Brussels Programme of Action for Least Developed Countries and have less than a decade to achieve the targets of the Millennium Development Goals.” The universally endorsed Goals seek to halve poverty by 2015.

Despite Asia’s overall economic growth and rising share of world trade in recent years, the region’s poorest countries have struggled to maintain their share of global commerce, the Report says. The Report emphasizes the economic consequences for Asia’s LDCs of what it says is a neglect of the agricultural sector, noting that Asia is becoming a net food importer, while agricultural subsidies and tariffs policies in advanced economies continue to post major obstacles to farm exports from poor Asian nations.

There are 14 LDCs in the Asia-Pacific region: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. These countries, home to 260 million people, face severe challenges from poor infrastructure, a high degree of vulnerability to natural disasters, inadequate diversification of the economy, unsatisfactory health and education facilities, and generally low savings rates. Despite some human development improvements, the per-capita annual Gross Domestic Product of Asia-Pacific’s lowest-income nations was only US$375 in 2003, less than half that of even other Asia-Pacific developing countries.

It is time for developed countries to address the vulnerability of the poorest nations in the current global trade environment, the Report says. However, even an ambitious international package can only complement, not substitute for, a global trade deal under the WTO’s struggling Doha Round, the Report stresses. Many observers feel that prospects for such a deal are all but gone. The five-year-long talks currently face a deadline at the end of June for a WTO framework agreement on agricultural market access and industrial tariffs, but are mired in a three-way standoff among the European Union, United States and a group of larger developing countries.

 “It may not be obvious why LDCs would want to gain access to the World Trade Organization – and the further liberalization that this implies,” the Report states. “For most, however, the alternative is worse – marginalization or bilateral control by one or two major powers. The multilateral WTO is still a better option if it offers some consistent basic ground rules.”

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Contacts for media:

Phnom Penh:

Kay Kirby Dorji, email: kay.kirby@undp.org; telephone: (94-11) 452-6400 ext. 245; mobile: (94-77) 317 8556

New Delhi:

Surekha Subarwal, email: surekha.subarwal@undp.org; telephone: (91-11) 2462 8877 ext. 346  

Geneva:

Jean Fabre, email: jean.fabre@undp.org; telephone: (41-22) 917 8541

London:

Chandrika Deshpande, email: chandrika.deshpande@undp.org; telephone: (44-20) 7396 5338, (44-9) 5746 0246

New York:    

Roshni Abayasekara-Karwal, email: roshni.karwal@undp.org; telephone: (1-212) 906 5355; mobile: (1-646-675 2523)

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The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) works in 37 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. From 2006 onward, UNDP Asia-Pacific Human Development Reports will become an annual series, providing the region with a new forum for furthering dialogue and constructive debate in support of a regional and global pro-poor agenda.

For more information about UNDP’s work in the Asia-Pacific region, please visit: http://www.undp.org/rbap/